NFLPS: Three games start Week 1 NFL Preseason action
2010-08-12
Three NFL games are on the betting menu for Thursday, opening the first full week of preseason action. On the board, the Saints will be in New England taking on the Patriots, Carolina will be in Baltimore, and Oakland will be in Dallas, with the Cowboys already playing their second game of the exhibition campaign, coming off Sunday’s win over Cincinnati. Let’s look each contest from a betting perspective, with lines courtesy of Sportsbook.com.
New Orleans (0-0) at New England (0-0), Thursday, 7:30 p.m. EDT
Sportsbook.com Line: New England -1.5 Total: 35.5
The reigning Super Bowl champs travel to New England to take on a franchise that knows a few things about winning Super Bowls. If familiarity indeed builds contempt, then this preseason tilt could have some fireworks as the Saints and Patriots are conducting joint practices this week in preparation for this matchup.
Among the storylines in Patriots camp is the presence of Wes Welker after undergoing reconstructive knee surgery in the offseason. Welker (NFL-best 123 receptions in 2009) appears on course to make an immediate impact again this season.
The Saints humiliated the Patriots on a Monday night in the Superdome last season as the porous Patriots defense had no answer for Drew Brees and his arsenal of offensive weapons. Look for the Saints to take advantage of a defense that remains a work in progress.
The Saints have proven to be a solid play in the preseason on the road with slightly elevated totals: NEW ORLEANS is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) in a road game where the total is between 35.5 and 38 points since 1993. The average score was NEW ORLEANS 19.2, OPPONENT 19.4 - (Rating = 2*).
Carolina (0-0) at Baltimore (0-0), Thursday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Sportsbook.com Line: Baltimore -3 Total: 34
A pair of powerful rushing teams square off in the first preseason contest for both clubs. There’s no question the Carolina offense will once again feature a heavy dose of DeAngelo Williams this season, while the Ravens will be handing the ball off to Ray Rice, Willis McGahee and Le’Ron McClain.
The Ravens have an established starting quarterback in Joe Flacco, while the Panthers will be replacing longtime starter Jake Delhomme. Matt Moore replaced the injured Delhomme for the final five games of last season, leading the Panthers to a 4-1 record. Moore will face competition from second-round draft pick Jimmy Clausen.
The always stingy Baltimore defense is a little banged up in the secondary at the moment, but expect them to be able to stifle Carolina’s attack. Baltimore has had success against Carolina: BALTIMORE is 3-1 straight up (and against the spread) versus CAROLINA since 1993.
Oakland (0-0) at Dallas (1-0), Thursday, 9:00 p.m. EDT
Sportsbook.com Line: Dallas -3.5 Total: 34.5
The Raiders are putting their hopes on the arm of quarterback Jason Campbell, whom they acquired from Washington during the offseason. Pushing Campbell will be veteran Bruce Gradkowski, who gave the Raiders a bit of a spark last season after replacing mega-bust JaMarcus Russell.
The Cowboys offense went without a touchdown in their 16-7 win over Cincinnati on Sunday night in Canton, scoring on a 6-yard interception return by Brandon Sharpe in the fourth quarter. The Dallas defense forced four turnovers in the game. Tony Romo went 5-for-10 for 59 yards without a pick. Rookie WR Dez Bryant remains out with an ankle injury.
The Raiders are eager to establish a winning attitude while their perennial playoff contending opponents may have less to prove in the preseason. Also consider this StatFox system in your wagering:
Play Against - Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (DALLAS) - after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread, in August games. (47-22 over the last 10 seasons.) (68.1%, +22.8 units. Rating = 2*).
NFL: NY GIANTS at WASHINGTON (8:35 PM ET, ESPN)2009-12-21With their season on the line, the Giants came up short at home again vs. Philadelphia. Although not mathematically dead in the playoff race, their hopes are on life support, with two of their final three games on the road. The first one comes Monday night vs. division rival Washington. Interestingly, New York opened as a 3-point favorite, and that line has held firm at Sportsbook.com despite nearly nine of every 10 bets coming in on that side of the pointspread. Are oddsmakers begging you to flood your money in on the Giants, or is it simply too tough to move off the field goal number? We’ll see…
Unlike recent season’s, New York has floundered of late away from home, losing its L3 both SU & ATS by at least 20 points each time. They’ll look to break that skid with a fourth straight win in Washington against a Redskins team set on spoiling any remaining hopes for its division rival. HC Jim Zorn’s team is looking to snap a skid of its own, four straight losses to NFC East foes. They have improved over the last month however, winning their L5 games against the spread, including their first road win of the season last week in Oakland.
The Giants are not only looking to sweep the Redskins for the third time in four years but also keep their playoff hopes alive after slipping two games behind Philadelphia in the NFC East after losing last Sunday night, 45-38.
A week after beating the Cowboys, New York lost a fourth straight game to the Eagles at the Meadowlands and fell to third place in the division with a record of 7-6. Philadelphia sits at 9-4 and Dallas is 8-5. Washington brings up the rear at 4-9 and comes into this Monday night game off a victory at Oakland.
These teams renewed their rivalry in Week 1 and the Giants held on for a 23-17 victory at home after building a 17-point lead late in the first half. Mario Manningham caught a 30-yard touchdown pass from Eli Manning, Osi Umenyiora returned a Jason Campbell fumble 37 yards for a touchdown and kicker Lawrence Tynes booted three field goals to account for New York’s scoring.
Most Redskins fans feared Campbell would pick up where he left off last season when he slumped in the second half after a promising start, but he’s been a little more consistent and has 2,946 yards, 19 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. He’ll set career highs in all three categories, but it’s up for debate whether or not he’s still the quarterback of the future. The first half of 2008 saw Campbell throw eight touchdowns without an interception and twice top 300 yards, but over the last eight games he threw for five scores and six interceptions and had just one performance of 220 yards or better.
The Redskins have passed for 409 more yards than their defense has allowed through the air, but the numbers on the ground aren’t positive. Second-year pro Quinton Ganther became their fourth starting running back of the season last week and he scored twice against the Raiders.
Run defense was Washington’s focus during the offseason—it signed Pro Bowl tackle Albert Haynesworth to a $100 million contract—yet still allows 117.4 yards per game.
After rushing for nearly 2,500 yards in 2008, the Giants are on pace to finish with fewer than 2,000. They’ve got 11 rushing scores—also behind pace of last year’s 18—while Manning has 23 touchdowns.
PREDICTION: The Redskins have scored just 31 points in the last three meetings and aren’t really built to come from behind. But on the flip side the Giants have given up 23 passing touchdowns. It’ll come down to which quarterback can make the most plays. N.Y. GIANTS 21, WASHINGTON 16
NFL: Early Sunday Games (1:00 PM ET, FOX & CBS)2009-09-21Nine of Sunday’s NFL week two games feature early kickoffs, and each one of the games boasts numerous wagering opportunities. Among the highlight games scheduled for 12ET Houston-Tennessee, New England-NY Jets, New Orleans-Philadelphia, and Arizona-Jacksonville. Here’s is a quick look at each game with some key betting tidbits to consider, plus a free pick from the StatFox Platinum Sheet. Be sure to check the TEAM STATISTICS, BETTING TRENDS, and LIVE ODDS pages for the latest information on all the games.
(207) HOUSTON at (208) TENNESSEE (-6.5)
Coming off a tough loss at Pittsburgh in Week 1, Tennessee plays its first home game and first divisional game against Houston, a team it has had its way with in recent years. The Titans have taken five of the L6 games between these rivals, both SU & ATS. Much of the reason for Tennessee’s regular season success in ‘08 was its ability to win at home (7-1 SU & 6-1-1 ATS) and in divisional play (4-2 SU & ATS). HC Jeff Fisher’s team has also been a great play for bettors in the month of September, having now covered nine straight games. Houston meanwhile, is off to a rough start after being upset by the Jets at home, and plays its first road game here. The Texans are 1-4 SU & ATS in their L5 road openers. However, they are on a 6-1 ATS run vs. AFC South rivals.
(209) NEW ENGLAND (-3.5) at (210) NY JETS
The Patriots-Jets rivalry has been one of the most fierce in the NFL in recent years, and there was always no love lost between the teams in the Eric Mangini era in New York. Perhaps that could have something to do with the fact that the Patriots have won 10 straight games ATS (9-1 SU) at the Meadowlands. New Jets’ head man Rex Ryan, already 1-0, is looking to restore some home field advantage as they begin their home slate for the third straight year against their arch rivals. New York was a horrendous 1-7-1 ATS in home games vs. divisional foes under Mangini and needs this game to avoid falling two games back in the standings already. New England has become well known for its divisional success, 12-1 SU & ATS in its L13 away from home vs. its AFC East foes.
(215) NEW ORLEANS (-1) at (216) PHILADELPHIA
Philadelphia takes on a second straight NFC South foe when it hosts New Orleans. Expectations are high in Philly this year and the Eagles are off to a fast start, having routed Carolina in Week 1. Perhaps minus QB Donovan McNabb, they’ll look to build on that win at home, where they were 6-2 SU & ATS in ’08. They also boast that same straight up mark (7-1 ATS) in their L8 h2h meetings with the Saints. However, HC Andy Reid has not gotten his team’s best effort in home openers, just 4-5 SU & 4-4-1 ATS since ’01. Sean Payton’s team was expected to win and did at home vs. the Lions last Sunday, but this week’s test will be much tougher. The Saints have won just two of L9 true road games, allowing 26.3 PPG in that span. They are also on a 4-8 ATS slide as dogs.
(221) ARIZONA at (222) JACKSONVILLE (-4.5)
Recent history has shown that Super Bowl runner-ups have struggled in their follow up seasons, particularly where bettors are concerned. Arizona became the latest casualty of that trend by dropping its opener against San Francisco, SU & ATS. In week 2, the Cardinals will head to Jacksonville to take on the Jaguars, also 0-1 after losing at Indy. Arizona has fared well against the AFC in the Ken Whisenhunt era, going 7-2 ATS. However, Jacksonville has also played well in inter-conference games, going 19-8 ATS all-time as a host. Unfamiliarity will play a role in this game, as these teams have met just twice previously, with the Jaguars winning both SU & ATS. In the only game in Jacksonville in 2000, the Jaguars won 44-10, outgaining Arizona 469-189.
In this week’s StatFox Platinum Sheet, StatFox Steve says…The Arizona-Jacksonville line seems like another major overreaction. By now, we all know how much Super Bowl runner-ups struggle for their betting backers. Arizona proved it once again last week in losing as a favorite vs. San Francisco. However, the Cardinals were an overstated favorite in that game, not an underdog, like they are here. Furthermore, they are an underdog to a team that I believe could be headed for 4-5 wins this season. Jacksonville is going to struggle this season, particularly on offense, where they are very short on playmakers. The Jaguars produced a very balanced but very limited 228 yards of offense last week at Indy. The Cards only allowed 203 yards in their loss. When you cross reference those figures, it’s difficult to envision Jacksonville getting any more than about 250 yards of offense. In which case, they are headed for at most 14-17 points. It’s crazy to lay 4-1/2 if that happens. Take the under and or the underdog if so. Play: ARIZONA +4.5
NFL: Denver at San Diego (8:15 PM ET, NBC)2008-12-26Maligned NFL official Ed Hochuli is breathing a sign of relief, as it turns out his errant call in the Week 2 meeting between San Diego & Denver did not wind up deciding the AFC West. Instead, this week’s meeting in San Diego will do so. The Chargers have rallied to force a winner take all matchup on SNF. The Broncos only have themselves to blame, losing at home to Buffalo a week ago as 6-point favorites. Of course, with a 4-3 ATS record on the road as opposed to 0-8 ATS at home, HC Mike Shanahan may be just as happy to rest his team’s playoff hopes on pulling out a road win. His club is on a 3-14 ATS slide in division play. Oddsmakers love the Chargers, installing them as 8.5-point favorites. They have won the L5 ATS in the series, going 4-1 SU.
The AFC West looked like a done deal a few of weeks ago, but the Broncos couldn’t close the door and now have to win in San Diego to avoid a monumental collapse. Denver’s inexplicable 30-23 loss at home to Buffalo, coupled with the Chargers’ 41-24 victory in Tampa Bay, kept the division title and No. 4 seed in the AFC playoffs up for grabs. The winner of Sunday’s game at Qualcomm Stadium will host Indianapolis in the first round of the playoffs.
It was just a few short years ago that the Broncos seemingly had the Chargers’ number, defeating San Diego in five of six meetings from 2003-05, but over the past two campaigns, the pendulum has swung in the other direction. The Chargers have swept the season series over the past two seasons, including a pair of dominating victories a year ago by a combined score of 64-6.
Denver got some payback in Week 2 of this season, with a little help from Hochuli, winning 39-38 at INVESCO Field at Mile High on rookie Eddie Royal’s 4-yard touchdown reception and subsequent 2-point conversion catch with 24 seconds remaining. Quarterbacks Philip Rivers and Jay Cutler combined for 727 yards passing and seven touchdowns. Amazingly, three Chargers had catches of at least 48 yards. Darren Sproles had a 66-yard touchdown catch as well as a 103-yard kickoff return for a score, while Chris Chambers added two scoring grabs. Tight end Tony Scheffler had a pair of second-quarter touchdown receptions three minutes apart.
The decision put the Broncos in the early driver’s seat in the AFC West, and not even a three-game losing streak in the middle of the season could drop them from the perch. But back-to-back defeats to the Panthers and Bills, combined with San Diego’s longest winning streak of the year (three), has set the stage for a winner-take-all event.
The Bolts won a total of 13 games in 2007 and came within a win of the Super Bowl but that was of little consolation to fans, some of whom will still call for head coach Norv Turner’s dismissal even if there’s football in January. Rivers, six days after being snubbed for the Pro Bowl, threw a career-high four touchdown passes in Tampa Bay. He has a 34-to-11 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
PREDICTION: The Broncos are suddenly underdogs. They had 34 first downs and nearly 500 yards in the first meeting, but between their depleted backfield and the Chargers crowd, this has a troubled ending written all over it. SAN DIEGO 27, DENVER 20
(431) DENVER at (432) NEW ENGLAND2008-10-20After getting throttled by San Diego in front of a national TV NBC Sunday night audience last week, the Patriots will try to turn the tables on Denver. By the time the ball gets kicked off on Monday, New England will have gone 30 days in between home games. Playing as a field goal underdog at presstime, over 70% of the action at Sportsbook backed the Broncos.
The last time HC Bill Belichick’s team played at home, it was whipped by Miami 38-13, the sixth straight ATS loss for the franchise at Gillette Stadium. However, Belichick is 14-4 ATS vs. excellent passing teams averaging >=260 PYPG as the coach of the Pats. Denver meanwhile, has had its own struggles, losing its last five games against the number despite sitting at 4-2 currently. As road dogs, the Broncos are on a 1-6 ATS slide. In the h2h series between these teams, Denver leads 9-3 SU & ATS in the L12.
Mike Shanahan versus Bill Belichick. The sideline chess game may be just as good as the one on the field. Both head coaches could be poster boys for "No Guts, No Glory," especially Shanahan, who went for two points and the win against San Diego in Week 2. Belichick's probably the only other coach with enough confidence in his team, and desire to drop the hammer on an opponent.
And you can bet he'll be ready to go for broke given Shanahan's current three-game winning streak in the series.
The Pats return home after splitting a West Coast trip to San Francisco and San Diego. Despite the loss of Tom Brady, New England is 3-2 after a 30-10 loss against the Chargers last Sunday night. In refraining from trying to become an NFL superhero, quarterback Matt Cassel's success has revolved around making the right decisions, not the highlight films.
Aside from taking far too many sacks (19), Cassel's completing a high-percentage of his throws (64.8) and beginning to do more than just check down and move the offense in small chunks.
He takes aim at a Denver defense that continues to sputter no matter where it plays. The Broncos fell for the second time in three weeks, losing at home to Jacksonville, 24-17, and the defense was gored for 416 yards, includng 276 through the air by David Garrard.
The Pats can still score in bunches and from anywhere-just ask the 49ers, who watched Randy Moss burn the secondary for a 66-yard touchdown. What New England desperately needs to improve is a running game split amongst three players (Sammy Morris, LaMont Jordan and Laurence Maroney), none of whom would be shoo-ins for a starting job on any other franchise. For the bruising-and often bruised-Maroney and shifty Morris at least Denver's defense, which allows an average of 114.8 yards per game, offers an opportunity to get on the right track.
Jay Cutler has picked apart his fair share of suspect pass defenses, notably Oakland and New Orleans but struggled against the one upper-echelon secondary on the schedule, Tampa Bay.
PREDICTION
Unlike past runners-up in the Super Bowl, the Patriots have so far managed to avoid the Super Bowl jinx. Not many would have bet on a winning record for the defending AFC champs at even this stage, but Belichick won't be happy playing with house money. It's just on another challenge for a future Hall of Fame coach.
NEW ENGLAND 27, DENVER 17
NFL: Winning Big Money on NFL Draft2008-04-25All right, maybe not BIG money, but at least the title got your attention to read on and who knows, maybe you can cash in. Of course, Sportsbook.com will be your home on Saturday for all the action, including props like how many QB’s will be selected in the first round. Right now the key number is Over/Under 1.5.
Imagine talking to your friends on Monday and telling them you picked up a few hundred dollars or even more betting on the NFL Draft! My assignment was to study all the aspects of where players are going. In order to make you money with my selections, I’ve channeled the spirits of Mel Kiper, Todd McShay and other draft gurus to assure I can be correct.
One difference everyone will see in this year’s 2008 draft is the pace. In the first round, teams will have 10 minutes to make their selections instead of 15. The second-round window will be seven minutes. Rounds 3 through 7 will be five minutes. That will mean all the talking heads will have to get up to speed, with less boring time.
I’ll rate my prop selections from Sportsbook.com on a 1-5 basis, with five being the best plays.
Number of Quarterbacks taken in Round One (Over/Under 1.5)
What a toughie to start with. Matt Ryan will of course be picked and based on history it would make sense Brian Brohm would be taken. However, in surveying the landscape of immediate needs, not sure who really needs a signal caller and seeing the amount of money that would be required to sign one and have him sit, not sure any NFL team will do that. That said somebody is sure to pull boneheaded move and draft a player they don’t really need. Still with this year’s crop of QB’s filled with uncertainty, bet the Under on this prop. Rating -2
Number of Running Backs taken in Round One (Over/Under 4)
Heavy action on the Under, now up to -350 in this spot. The only true every down back is Darren McFadden, whose skill set includes taking the ball out of the shotgun formation. Next is Rashard Mendenhall, who though doesn’t possess the straight line speed of DM, has more then enough gitty-up and can run inside or outside, just ask USC. Jonathan Stewart is the last sure-fire first round selection. He is the perfect complimentary back to a team that has shifty starter. What makes this an Over wager is Felix Jones is available. Dallas in no longer enamored with Julius Jones and will want somebody new to tag with Marion Barber. Owner Jerry Jones is Arkansas grad, loves to play GM on draft day and Jones went to what college, that’s right Arkansas. Play Over to cash +270 ticket. Rating -4
Number of Wide Receivers taken in Round One (Over/Under 3)
Based purely on talent, its hard to make a case more than one wide receiver will be taken in the top 11, since Buffalo looks to be hooked on Devin Thomas. Malcolm Kelly and James Hardy have first round ability and likely will be taken, but sure things, hardly. Going to pass here, because other then these three, nobody else is worthy, and need does not seem to be an issue.
Number of Offensive Linemen taken in Round One (Over/Under 6)
With Jake Long already heading to Miami, six more are needed to go Over. Like the Dolphins, Chicago, Atlanta and Kansas City appear to have pressing needs, taking the total to four. Talent wise, a number of outstanding linemen are available. As is the case most years, you’ll see a run at a certain position as GM’s sometimes panic if the guy they pegged gets picked. Thus they’ll go with the logic of protecting the quarterback and making the running game click and sense there is enough depth at this position, seven offensive linemen is a real possibility. Play Over 6. Rating -3
Number of Defensive Backs (CB/S) taken in Round One (Over/Under 5.5)
This prop wager all hinges on what Baltimore does. If Matt Ryan falls to eight, expect the Ravens to draft him. That would mean five would be the correct number for this bet, making Under the play. If Atlanta takes Ryan, Baltimore could take Leodis McKelvin or Dominque Rodgers-Cromartie. Kenny Phillips from Miami will be taken, as will Mike Jenkins. Corner Aqib Talib might be the best in the entire draft, however character issues make him late first rounder, possibly in Green Bay. Antoine Cason will be the sixth DB chosen, sending this number Over, if Ryan is gone by number eight slot. I’m betting he is thus wagering the -115. Rating -3
Chris Long - What Will his Draft Pick Position Be (Over/Under 3.5)
Be serious. The Rams are taking Howie’s kid as the number two pick. Granted, -200 is a little rich, but think of it as betting the Patriots against the Jets on the money line. If by some crazy chance, St. Louis goes with Glen Dorsey, look for Atlanta to trade down and team that covets Long take him third. Rating-5
Darren McFadden - What Will his Draft Pick Position Be (Over/Under 5.5)
Al Davis has always been enamored with speed, thus expect him to take McFadden at four and try to move one of the dozen other running backs under contract during the draft. Play Under. Rating-3
Matt Ryan - What Will his Draft Pick Position Be (Over/Under 7.5)
Play Over, as Atlanta gets cold feet. Rating -3
Glenn Dorsey - What Will his Draft Pick Position Be (Over/Under 2.5)
Betting Chris Long to St. Louis, making this Over play. Rating -3
Sedrick Ellis - What Will his Draft Pick Position Be (Over/Under 8.5)
Indications are Cincinnati at nine, believe the USC DT will be available and take him here. Play Over. Rating – 4
Vernon Gholston - What Will his Draft Pick Position Be (Over/Under 6.5)
If Kansas City doesn’t take him at five to replace Jared Allen, the Jets almost assuredly will next at six. Play Under- Rating -4
Rashard Mendenhall - What Will his Draft Pick Position Be (Over/Under 15.5)
It seems to be no coincidence that the number chose for this prop and the Detroit Lions draft position is identical (15 that is). Play Under with the Lions needing a first rate running back to go with new offensive philosophy. Rating -4
Jonathan Stewart - What Will his Draft Pick Position Be (Over/Under 20.5)
Tricky call here on the former Oregon Duck. He’s had his share of injuries, making durability concerns real. He’s a big back, who can cut on a dime, making him prone to ankle injuries over the short and long term. The Eagles (19th) or Seahawks (25th) are the logical teams for Stewart to be chosen by. My guess is Philadelphia does defensive backfield and Seattle scoops him up. Play Over. Rating -1
DeSean Jackson - What Will his Draft Pick Position Be (Over/Under 27.5)
What team has aging quarterback, a lead receiver in his mid-30’s and no other consistent outside threat? If you guessed Tampa Bay, you are correct. The Bucs draft 20th, meaning DeSean Jackson will be wearing pewter, red and white in the fall. Under. Rating -5
Draft Matchups: Which Player Will Get Drafted 1st?
* Darren McFadden -140 vs Matt Ryan +110
Challenging wager, picking McFadden as Atlanta doesn’t pull the trigger on Ryan. Rating -3
* Chris Long +140 vs Glenn Dorsey -180
Everything I’m reading suggests Long to St. Louis as second selection. Rating -5
* Briam Brohm -260 vs Chad Henne +200
If Atlanta passes on Ryan, this is where they pick up Brian Brohm to fill quarterback needs. Rating -3
* Joe Flacco +105 vs Chad Henne -135
Even with all the good things heard about Flacco, that was February, this April, does any organization take a flyer on a quarterback or look around the NFL, with the number of Wolverines QB’s that have cashed paychecks the last 15 years. Pick Henne. Rating -2
* Jonathan Stewart -180 vs Felix Jones +140
Even though Jones appears headed to Dallas at 28th slot, rumors are starting to percolate, Arizona might jump in and take Jones. I’d still lean with Stewart; however hearing enough talk this could be real. Rating -1
Total SEC Players Drafted in the 1st Round (Over/Under 6.5)
An uncertain wager on Under, with Marcus Harrison of Arkansas the one player that could tip the scale the wrong way. Rating-1
Total ACC Players Drafted in the 1st Round (Over/Under 6.5)
After careful study, don’t find the seventh player, mark this play as an Under. Rating-3
Total Big 10 Players Drafted in the 1st Round (Over/Under 4.5)
Four players are set, with Indiana’s James Hardy the variable selection. His inability to play hard all the time has the Under as the play. Rating-2
Total PAC 10 Players Drafted in the 1st Round (Over/Under 4.5)
With such at deep draft at the cornerback position, Antoine Cason is fifth Pac-10 player picked in opening round. Rating -3
Many different sportsbooks are offering wagers on certain players picked in the first round, thought I’d share my absolutely favorite one…
Former Penn State LB Dan Conner to be taken in first round?
This is legalized thievery at +150 for the answer to be NO. Rating-5
Disclaimer- There is no way to know what teams might make trades that would significantly alter how the draft plays out. Take this into consideration.
NFL - Tennessee at Denver 2007-11-19ESPN offers up a Monday night battle between a pair of teams in the thick of the AFC playoff chase. Tennessee owns two more wins than Denver in ’07, yet oddsmakers have installed the hosts as a 2-point favorite. Recent trends side entirely with the visitors.
Tennessee is 6-3 SU & 5-3 ATS, but looking to rebound from a costly loss this past week at home to Jacksonville. The Broncos come off one of their bigger wins of ‘07, a 20-11 decision in Kansas City. Both teams are just a game back in their respective division standings. Despite the two-game won-lost difference, Tennessee is a 3-point underdog. That could be a coup for bettors, since the Titans have been nothing short of remarkable as dogs, going 13-2 ATS in their L15. Meanwhile, Denver has been atrocious at home, having covered the spread in two of the L13 games. Amazingly, the Tennessee franchise has not played in Denver since ’92, as the then Houston Oilers.
The world has finally noticed: The Titans win despite themselves. The Jags found a convincing win against ‘em last week despite troubling losses on offense, and now the rest of the league is lined up to take a stab. Vince Young posted strong yardage as a passer, not a typical mode of attack for this team, but the results showed the lack of a true rushing threat is a problem. The defense is strong but can only do so much.
Denver… what can you say? They appear to be on the brink of destruction one week, then they travel to Arrowhead and disseminate the Chiefs with ease the next. The offense goes on the legs of whichever undrafted prospect is starting at RB. This year is it Selvin Young. However, it is the defense that must shine for this unit to find wins. Get after the QB, wreak havoc in the offensive backfield, and force turnovers.
Keys to the Game – A bit of rare history is possible for Denver in this contest. In all likelihood the Broncos will be a home Monday night football underdog, marking just the third time in the last 27 years this has occurred. Among the many reasons why is this uncomplicated answer. Tennessee has top three rushing offense and Broncos have bottom three rushing defense. The Titans are 20-2 ATS when they rush for 150 to 175 yards a game. Denver might want to put Dre Bly and Champ Bailey on an island in early downs and commit nine players to around the line of scrimmage and dare Vince Young to complete medium to longer passes. Broncos are hard to fathom 2-11 ATS in home games over the last two years.
StatFox Pick – Titans SU & ATS